Free, non-congested flow of people within urban and built spaces is, crucially, an issue of safety and security (although comfort and visitor experience are also major factors in most circumstances). There’s no doubt that people movement modelling helps everybody involved in the process – from architects, planners and developers through to fire engineers and security advisors – to optimise the design, spatial layout and operational management of a building.
The key aspects of crowd flow study are the capture, analysis and modelling of user behaviour and movement patterns. At Buro Happold, our SMART (Software Modelling Analysis Research Technologies) Project Team helps designers to identify potential problems in terms of space provision, and the likely effects on comfort, safety and management. By forecasting activity patterns and flow rates, consultants can optimise the provision of routes, entrances, exits and stairways and improve the ease of circulation. In turn, this enhances building performance, security and safety both in the short and longer terms.
At the heart of designing for effective people flow management is ongoing and varied research. This is vital. Our consultants’ expertise in crowd behaviour modelling emanates from a vast breadth of research carried out in relation to projects involving schools and concert venues through to sports stadiums and major transport terminals.
Determining the optimum solutions
To determine the optimum solutions, project-specific studies need to be conducted at targeted venues comparable to the project in plan, as different venue types and activities affect behaviour in dissimilar ways. For example, a football crowd is very different to a cricket crowd, while the crowd at a cricket match in England will be very different to one that attends a game in India.
The aim of research, then, should be to answer questions such as: ‘What would people normally do at the venue when they arrive, during lunchtime and when they depart?’ and, crucially: ‘What would they do in the event of an emergency situation?’
In-depth studies also yield an understanding of scenarios critical to the design and operation of a building. Departures typically govern egress stairs and corridor capacities, while arrivals influence the approach routes and turnstile designs. Lunchtime crowd movements would impinge on the design of toilet and bar provisions. For their part, emergency scenarios govern safe walking distances and, accordingly, influence the configuration of stairs and corridor locations (as well as their capacities).
A fact-finding, data-gathering survey would typically involve video and non-video based collection of data at carefully selected ‘pinch points’, together with interviews of a sample of visitors and the key Stakeholders (the heads of operations and security, the chief fire officer and so on).
These surveys are conducted for the various scenarios, including fire evacuation. The latter would be carried out together with the fire safety teams at the venue using an unannounced fire drill, and collect data on pre-escape movement times, the relative use of nearest versus main exits, the effectiveness of available signage and other essential, safety-related matters.
Statistical account of behaviour
The video-based data is analysed using proprietary EventCounter software, which provides a powerful statistical account of crowd behaviour as well as design capacities. Data typically analysed includes arrival patterns, service times for security search procedures, limiting flow-rates through turnstiles, stairs, walkways and escalators, walking speeds and densities.
Over the years, the SMART Team has built an extensive catalogue of data on both behaviour and design capacities in numerous venue types and circumstances. A good example of this is the SMART Team’s work with a consortium of multi-national organisations involving a major European Commission-funded research project on rail terminal passenger movements.
Consultants have worked closely with FGC, the underground rail operators at Barcelona’s rail interchange terminal, assisting in accurate data capture and analysis, the identification of ‘worse case’ scenarios, passenger surveys (video and non-video), the development of behavioural models and validations.
Leading on from the research work, numerical modelling is the natural next step. Analysts and researchers help provide simple, innovative solutions to complex engineering problems through a mix of research and analysis, from crowd flow modelling for everyday purposes through to bomb blast analysis. Expertise in numerical modelling has resulted in the development of several software tools that enable potential problems to be forecast at the early stages of the design process, making complex ideas easier to understand and allowing the delivery of added value to the client.
Smart Crowd Flow Solutions
The SMART Team’s ‘Smart Crowd Flow Solutions’ cover a range of services including fact-finding data gathering surveys, conceptual design studies, analyses and complete design optimisation studies. Our people movement consultants have extensive experience of informing both the design and management of public assembly venues. The ultimate goal is state-of-the-art applied research on crowd safety design, management and evaluation, human behaviour in fire and emergency evacuation scenarios, computer modelling of people movement under routine and emergency conditions and safe, efficient passenger disembarkation from transportation facilities – all of which assist the client.
In addition to EventCounter, the sophisticated numerical modelling and analysis tools that may be employed include SmartNetwork, which is used for conceptual design and analyses of spaces by way of space syntax principles. The SMART Team has also developed a dynamic simulation tool called SMARTMove, which models hundreds of thousands of occupants circulating and evacuating the built environment. This particular tool features an in-built design optimisation capability.
SmartMove works within the familiar CAD environment of Rhino, allowing visual simulation of people movement on the 2D/3D model of the building. This renders a powerful visualisation of the performance of the building, together with an assessment of internal queue and density levels.
Findings must not stand alone
The other crucial element is to integrate key findings – be they research or modelling-based – with other disciplines. To this end, crowd flow and safety assessments are carried out at the same time as consideration is given to operational management, architectural, structural and building services design, transport systems, fire evacuation and other security parameters.
It’s essential for consultants to hold regular design reviews. In our case, that’s internally – with the structural engineers, fire engineers, building services engineers, transport modellers and security advisors – and externally involving architects, clients and operational managers.
The modelling software is also able to include – and, therefore, advise on – some of the operational parameters within the simulation. This would encompass staffing levels (for instance the number of service desks at the immigration counters at an airport), security procedures (focusing on percentage of limited search versus full body search, for example), signage provisions and so on.
Using a thorough sensitivity analysis, it’s possible to advise on safety-critical parameters and their influence on the overall performance of the venue. In turn, this informs the design and management of the site in a wholly integrated fashion.
Plan of action at Lord’s
An example of how research, analysis and integrated design has worked in harmony can be found in the proposed masterplan for Lord’s, the historic home of the Marylebone Cricket Club (MCC) in London’s St John’s Wood regularly referred to as ‘the birthplace of cricket’.
The GB pound 250- GB pound 300 million plan for redeveloping Lord’s is now being formulated by Pulitzer Prize-winning architect Herzog & de Meuron (designer of the ‘Birds Nest’ Olympic Stadium in Beijing), with various options involving a capacity increase to somewhere between 35,000 and 40,000 (the current capacity standing at 28,500). Five brand new stands are proposed (subject to planning permission) to replace the existing Compton, Edrich, Warner, Allen and Tavern Stands, all featuring unique tiers with each section creating a lectern-style edifice.
Herzog’s plans include six Meccano-style floodlights to support day-night matches, with the overall redevelopment of the ground being funded by the sale of apartments and debenture seats such that MCC secretary Keith Bradshaw can realise his dream of creating “the Manchester United of cricket”.
Buro Happold’s crowd flow consultancy team has been appointed by MCC to perform a thorough analysis of the current usage of the people circulation provisions in and around the Lord’s Cricket Ground, with a view to helping expand its capacity.
Using state-of-the-art data capturing and analysis tools and methodology, a thorough assessment of present operations at the ground has been performed in respect of crowd movement in all major areas. The study has investigated the arrival and departure profiles, movement patterns during breaks in play, qualitative/quantitative analysis of transportation modes and the quantitative parameters defining queues and congestion around the Food Village and bars, for example.
Working closely with the operations and security teams at Lord’s, Buro Happold’s consultants have carried out detailed quantitative assessments of design parameters such as turnstile counts and circulation widths, operational parameters (like ‘flow balancing’ on various gates) and security parameters including baggage search.
As part of the project, a network model has been created to simulate the departure of people from the stadium, concentrating in particular on ‘pinch points’ in the vicinity of the North Gate.
Model behaviour at the Academy
Meanwhile, in a totally different context – but every bit as vital in terms of crowd movement and safety – the SMART Team has also been working on school projects.
The Thomas Deacon Academy in Peterborough, for example, is a secondary school for over 2,000 pupils and staff. To optimise the design for this modern school (which encourages a university-style environment, replacing traditional lessons with seminars, lectures and tutorials), crowd flow modelling has added real value for the client.
A pupil-flow model was created to predict circulation patterns and areas likely to become congested, and then to design-in measures for safe movement. Issues such as stairwell and corridor crowding at tutor group changeovers and lunch times were taken into account.
The resulting design and building management procedures have generated time, cost and efficiency savings across the lifetime of the building.
Not only does advanced numerical modelling improve the safety and accessibility of educational buildings, it also saves money by optimising the space provision of stairs, corridors, classrooms, assembly areas and entrances and exits at an early stage in the design process. The staff and pupil experience is improved as crowds and congestion are significantly reduced.
By considering how pupils move through the building and utilise the spaces provided, our simulations enabled the design team to assess the consequences of a proposed layout for safe pupil circulation under both routine and emergency evacuation conditions. We consulted with the design team, head teachers, fire engineering operatives, security staff and the local education authority to ensure delivery of the best solutions.
Safer… and easier to manage
Buro Happold has also successfully applied its crowd flow management and modelling techniques to several other high-profile projects, including the London 2012 Media Centre, Liverpool’s Kings Waterfront development, the MMU Business School, Glasgow’s Prestwick Airport and Jeddah Airport’s huge Hajj Terminal (see panel ‘People flow solutions for airports: the Hajj Terminal at Jeddah International Airport’).
Overall, whatever the situation, crowd flow and control modelling makes buildings safer, easier to manage and often more profitable – it’s an essential service given today’s super-size venues and the security-conscious times in which we now find ourselves.