The report, issued by market research group Frost and Sullivan, suggests that the Homeland Security Technology market will peak between next year and 2012 in response to increased security fears. Worldwide, the market could see growth to GB pound 178 billion.
This newly-predicted increase is attributed to a number of factors. Illegal immigration, the perceived terrorist threat and political pressure are seen as the most powerful driving factors.
However, the industry has a battle on its hands if the growth is to be realised. Applicability problems, the high cost of technology and social resistance to civil liberty infringements are all blamed as ‘slowing factors’.
Working with historical and current trends, the report suggests that global terrorism will increase to over 1000 incidents per year by 2016. While attacks against food and water supplies, maritime and aviation targets are set to remain rare, the report predicts that government, business and private assets will continue to be targeted.
The level of terrorist activity worldwide peaked in 2005, with 1163 incidents in 73 countries. Eight of these incidents occurred in the UK.
The report draws attention to the UK’s open market, which it believes offers a high level of accessibility to foreign participants, and the fact that the remote monitoring and CCTV markets are still particularly in demand.
‘Closed’ threat domains like airports and seaports are set to benefit from the widest range of new technologies as the market grows. According to the report, biometrics, screening, intelligent video systems and RFID will all be used more in these areas. ‘Open’ domains, such as our public transport networks, will continue to make use of more conventional technologies like CCTV and communications.
Concern over public transportation networks is likely to grow, particularly in light of the 7/7 bombings. As the report says, “the sheer scale of the threat domain, as well as the required accessibility for day-to-day operations by passengers and authorities alike, makes transportation one of the more difficult threat domains to secure.”
In conclusion, the report confirms that ‘present terrorism trends indicate a continuing increase in political violence around the world’. This is largely blamed for the high perception of a terrorist threat here in the UK.
The report warns, “despite the requirements for enhanced security levels, any technology that does not fit in with overall operational patterns will (more often than not) be rejected out of hand.”
It continued: “In order for the UK HLS market to truly expand, security technologies must break out of their traditional threat domains, be leveraged into alternative ‘packages’ and look to enter unconsidered horizontal markets.
“It is up to industry to prove that technologies can break out of their traditional threat domains / ‘niches’ and meet the operational requirements of new markets that require enhanced security.”