Video surveillance trends in 2012: predictions by IMS Research

1. Refocusing on image quality

IMS says that, despite “general consensus amongst the industry that HD resolution is “enough” resolution for most security applications”, there is still a push for greater numbers of megapixels amongst some manufacturers.

IMS Research believes that for the vast majority of manufacturers, there will be a renewed focus on image quality in 2012.

“Likely advancements will be in well-established areas of need, such as low light capability and wide dynamic range,” IMS says.

“However, we will also see increasing adoption of P-Iris lens technology and advances in live video enhancement.”

Read more about IMS Research’s predictions on image quality here.

2. Focus to shift from the BRICs to the CIVETS?

Where will video surveillance suppliers find opportunities for growth in the coming year?

IMS says: “Over the last few years, the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) have been the countries of choice for video surveillance vendors seeking new growth opportunities.

“The CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa) are being touted as the next set of tiger economies due to their rapidly industrializing economies. The indicators appear promising as the current long term GDP rate for the CIVETS is in line with that for the BRICs.”

Read more about IMS Research’s predictions on growth markets here.

3. HD over coax – what will happen in 2012

IMS says that the HD over coax product category has expanded in 2011.

“In addition to HDcctv Alliance conformant products, HD-SDI and Security Link over Coax (SLOC) products (marketed by Sony as IP over Coax) are also available to the market for the transmission of high definition images over existing (or new) analogue infrastructure,” IMS says.

It defines the major factors for the take-up of HD-SDI as standardisation, storage cost and market education.

IMS Research predicts that manufacturers will continue to push HD over coax equipment to the end-user, increasing availability and choice.

It predicts the sector will see strong growth, with its market size almost doubling in 2012.

Read more about IMS Research’s predictions on HD over coax here.

4. Increased processor power will push analytics to the edge

IMS predicts that as processor power increases, video content analytics will be found more often at the edge of networks – that is, on devices rather than servers.

“This will mainly be driven by the availability of more powerful processors and partly by the refinement of VCA applications to make them less processor intensive,” IMS says.

“Basic analytics will become standard features and more advanced “paid for” analytics will be performed at the edge. Over time, an increasing variety of analytics will be added as standard features, at no extra cost to the customer.

“Moreover, more powerful processors will enable multiple VCA algorithms to be performed at the same time, for example loitering and object tracking to improve the detection capabilities.

“Another possibility is cross camera tracking, where one camera hands-over to another to follow a person as they move through a building.”

Read more about IMS Research’s predictions for analytics here.

5. Mergers and acquisitions

IMS says: “A cursory glance at the numbers would suggest that the video surveillance industry is a prime candidate for M&A activity.

“IMS Research forecasts that network video surveillance equipment sales will exceed 25% in 2012, despite uncertainty in the Eurozone.

“Whilst IMS Research does not believe that the video surveillance industry will see a spate of billion dollar super deals in 2012, it is likely that a greater volume of medium-sized deals will complete in the next 12 months.”

Read more about IMS Research’s predictions for mergers and acquisitions here.

6. Where next for cloud based video surveillance?

IMS says that the market for Video Surveillance as a Service (VSaaS) grew by 20-30% in 2011. It believes that there are a number of potential avenues for suppliers of VSaaS to explore in the coming year.

This includes the use of cloud-based video content analytics, which is known as Infrastructure as a Serrvice, where rather than charging on a per channel basis, vendors can charge for services aligned to analytics, such as report generation.

It also says small to medium size enterprises could monetise their existing video – for example, rather than simply leaving video dormant on a hard disk drive, business owners could post or stream video to the Internet, allowing customers to see real-time footage of the place they intend to visit.

It also suggests that ‘crowd-sourced’ monitoring of video could hold potential.

Read more about IMS Research’s predictions for cloud-based surveillance here.

7. The turning point for spinning disks?

Following recent flooding in Thailand, where many hard disk drives are manufactured, there are predictions of large price rises and problems in supply for HDDs.

IMS says: “The net result for 2012 is likely to be a softening to the trend of falling storage prices. If disruption to HDD manufacturing facilities continues for longer than anticipated the stated affects will become more pronounced, to the point that there may be a slight increase in average storage prices for a short period.

“Once HDD production recovers in Thailand, or production in alternative manufacturing sites is increased, the trend towards lower HDD prices and the resulting lower price per TB of storage systems will continue.

“However, for the moment it appears that the trend of lower prices for spinning disks has been temporarily paused.”

Read more about IMS Research’s predictions for the HDD market here.

8. Video management software

IMS Research predicts that 2012 will see a raft of innovation in the VMS industry, as vendors attempt to stave off the threat of commoditisation.

This could involve simpler and more intuitive user interfaces; mobile applications; and situational-awareness functionality.

Read more about IMS Research’s predictions for video management software in 2012 here.

9. Video compression – beyond H.264

IMS says that a combination of three factors – the flooding in Thailand affecting HDDs, the economic climate, and the growth of megapixel and HD network cameras – could lead to advancements in video surveillance compression.

Potential new compression standards include H.264 SVC, WebM, and High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC).

IMS says: “As H.264 SVC is essentially an extension of H.264, it is the most viable alternative in the short-term and we expect more video surveillance products with support for H.264 SVC to be launched in 2012.

“Longer term, HEVC is perhaps the most likely successor to H.264, but that will depend on just how much better it performs and its suitability for video surveillance applications.”

Read more about IMS Research’s predictions for video compression here.

10. Video surveillance to augment the ‘Internet of Things’ in China

IMS says: “One trend which is unlikely to have a big impact on the video surveillance market in 2012 but will receive more publicity and have a longer term impact is the Internet of Things (IOT).

“IOT is a concept in which individual objects are electronically identified and categorized virtually in an Internet-like structure.

“To be identified, such objects need to contain a tag such as an RFID tag. Once categorized, supply could more easily meet demand, waste would be reduced and it would be possible to find objects when they become lost.”

This is receiving a lot of attention in China, where there are some massive and modern surveillance deployments.

IMS says: “It is questionable whether IOT will drive new investment into security cameras. However, the expected benefits of IOT will help justify public expenditure on video surveillance equipment.”

Read more about IMS Research’s predictions for IOT here.

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