Not so long ago, the shortlisting of candidates from the plethora of CVs that flood into Human Resources (HR) departments every day was but a moribund subject. Despite all the advances to hit every other profession in this Digital Age, employment remained largely unaffected. Perhaps the most exciting things to emerge were ‘video’ CVs or the automation of routine tasks – such as posting jobs on the Internet. For the employment sector, the Digital Age remained very much a back office trickle.
Well, that trickle soon turned into a stream and the stream has just become a river – one that’s about to burst its banks and flow into the main workplace.
For recruitment, digitisation means that automated telephone systems can take the strain out of answering hundreds of calls, while the Internet offers a portal for job seekers to enter details on Application Forms. In truth, it’s all converted back to paper. Someone has to sift through it all and spot the clues that made you a great candidate to interview.
The changing face of HR
The face of HR – and, in particular, my own field of recruitment and choosing people from a broad list of potential candidates – has taken a massive leap forward thanks to a number of key developments that have begun to transform the employment landscape in a fairly radical manner.
The first development – and, to my mind, the most surprising – has emanated from a very unusual source, namely mathematics. Well, statistics to be precise. For decades, some psychologists have suggested that decision-making can be looked at in terms similar to the way in which a computer works (the binary digits theory). Others have argued that the unique combination of chemical transmitters in the brain and logical thought improve the decision-making process, ensuring that people are the ultimate arbiters in all matters.
In 2002, this argument was put to the test at Napier University in Edinburgh when a logistic regression model was used to predict success for educational students. The research found that the use of algorithms was a more accurate predictor of success than trained counsellors.
What does all this have to do with the selection of staff, you’re wondering? Well, it’s both simple and maddening. The evolution in computers to data mine large amounts of information and its congruence with the use of algorithms has shown that thinking people can be replaced by computers (perhaps because we humans have far more ‘unpredictable variables’ – or idiosyncrasies – than most computers). Ergo, a computer with the right algorithm is capable of making a rational, accurate and reliable prediction.
In his book ‘Super Crunchers’, author Ian Ayres illustrates how the role of a talent scout in sport may be reduced to mere numbers (Ayres adopts baseball as an example). Using a combination of data and algorithms, talent scouting is relegated to a matter of looking at the numbers. Not a popular claim for Ayres to make, one suspects, but useful to business leaders and those who like to ‘talent spot’.
Data sets and predictions
I can relate all of this back to our own sector when, several years ago, psychologist Dr Martin Dyer-Smith addressed the SITO National Conference at the NEC, illustrating how he could measure and predict a job seeker’s ability to handle repetitious tasks – a factor relevant to many security officers standing alone by barriers or sitting in front of CCTV monitors.
Dr Dyer-Smith was on to something big. He also knew that behaviour, no matter how idiosyncratic or individual, strives toward one goal. A crossword puzzle for human behaviour at work was in the making and, without realising it, we were there!
Well-known firms like Hertz and Continental Airlines are using data sets to predict what we people will and will not do, and with a high degree of accuracy, too. Psychologists and mathematicians have been devising and refining algorithms that can take data presented in a CV or Application Form and determine if that applicant is worth interviewing. Not convinced? Ask the giant retailer Wal-Mart.
The recruitment – or ‘attracting people’ – side of my profession is also facing radical change. The Google search engine’s massive computer power has accumulated a huge workable database that can be tapped into (commentators term this ‘data mining’). Of course, you just need to know how. Let me illustrate the point.
All those involved in recruitment are faced with a constant problem: how do we attract the most people to apply to the least number of adverts. In other words, which words sell? Do we have ‘vacancies’, ‘careers’ or ‘opportunities’, or do we merely promote jobs? This might sound simple but words sell, and one word can make a significant difference.
It’s all in a word
By tapping into the brain of Google we know beyond all reasonable doubt that the word ‘Jobs’ attracts more people to our web site than any of the others. How? We simply use Google’s advertising tool to show and measure the response for different configurations of adverts. Since the number of times that each advert is shown is so great, we can argue with certainty what works and what doesn’t. Without the huge computing power of Google we simply couldn’t have afforded the research costs to test and prove our adverts.
In the past, we’ve all relied almost entirely on the preference of words by individuals. Now, psychologists, mathematicians and technicians have shown beyond all reasonable doubt that the margin for error by humans can be reduced by looking at the numbers and mining data. Numbers aren’t always accurate and some people cannot be boxed, but where they can, the numbers can help.
Recruitment isn’t just about advertising and attracting the right people. We have a back office function that’s required once the CVs are captured. Here, two PhD graduates from Edinburgh University – Steve Finch and Andrei Mikheev – have extended their work for a CIA subsidiary and devised software that intelligently reads CVs (regardless of the style and content). Its accuracy isn’t 100%, but it does recognise the difference between a security manager and someone who has security managers reporting to them from those who report to a security manager. For those of you not familiar with database use, this is a step forward in ‘thinking computers’.
Talking about a revolution
At this moment in time, the impact on the front end of recruitment and selection is only visible to those looking for work when the thinking computer throws up an error.
Behind the scenes, much of human behaviour is being coded and digitised and, as this digitisation merges with the use of algorithms and emerging technologies (for example biometrics), our job roles and our method of working will be revolutionised by technology. The computer says ‘Yes’.
