The forecast is made in the latest UK Access Control Market Development Report from MBD.
According to the report, the access control sector slowed down last year as the economic slowdown hit the construction industry.
Up until then it had benefited from increased construction in the commercial sector, the rise in apartment building and more stringent insurance requirements.
When it picks up next year it will be spurred by the demand for integrated network systems, the threat of terrorism and its increased popularity in the schools and healthcare sectors.
There will also be an increasing trend to combine access control with building management systems in an effort to improve energy efficiency, says the report from Market & Business Development.
But growth will be hindered by competition from cheap imports from the Far East at the lower end of the market.
In their summary, MBD analysts review the market from 2004-2008 and forecast development from now until 2013:
Market review 2004-2008
“In 2008, the value of the access control market (including sales and rental income) increased by an estimated 3 per cent in nominal terms to GB pound 677 million. This follows slightly stronger annual growth of around 5 per cent recorded in the previous three years.
“Overall, the value of the access control market is believed to have increased by a cumulative 21 per cent in nominal terms between 2004 and 2008. The more moderate increase in 2008 is largely a reflection of the deteriorating economic conditions and the slowdown in the construction market, which has exerted a downward pressure on demand for access control equipment and systems, in particular in the commercial sector.
“Market development in recent years has been partly driven by the development of more
sophisticated and higher value systems. Furthermore, demand has been generated by the
heightened perceived threat of terrorism, which has increased the focus on security in
commercial and public buildings.
“Moreover, prior to 2008, growth has also been facilitated by increased construction output in the private commercial sector and the rise in the number of flats and apartments. Insurance requirements have also become more stringent in recent years, increasing demand for access control equipment.”
Market forecast 2009-2013
“The value of the UK access control market (including sales and rental income) is expected to decline by a moderate 1 per cent in real terms in 2009. This is largely a reflection of the adverse economic conditions, resulting in companies delaying projects and focusing on cost cutting measures.
“The market is expected to returned to growth in 2010, albeit at a moderate 2 per cent in real
terms. This is expected to be followed by annual growth of between 3 per cent and 4 per cent in the following three years.
“Overall, the value of the market is anticipated to increase by a cumulative 12 per cent in real terms between 2008 and 2013.
“Stronger growth is expected to be hindered by increased competition from cheap imports from the Far East, in particular at the lower end of the market.
“The market for access control is projected to continue to benefit from the trend towards integrated security solutions and advanced networked systems. Demand for IP based open architecture systems, enabling the integration of access control with other security services is likely to continue, although IP enabled systems are anticipated to command only a small share of the market during the forecast period.
“In the commercial and public sector, demand for access control systems is likely to increase in the medium-term due to the continued perceived threat of terrorist attacks, which has led to a renewed focus on security. In the public sector, education and healthcare are also expected to show further strong growth potential over the next few years.
“Furthermore, due to increased environmental awareness and rising energy costs, the combination of access control with building management systems is expected to become more popular in particular in the commercial sector, with the aim to improve energy efficiency.”
Other highlights of the report:
On-line systems
“On-line access control systems are expected to represent the only sector in the access control market to demonstrate growth throughout the forecast period. However, MBD project just a marginal increase for 2009.
“This is anticipated to be followed by stronger annual growth levels of between 3 per cent and 6 per cent in the following four years, with the value of the sector expected to reach GB pound 386 million in 2013.
“The share of the sector is also projected to increase from 48 per cent in 2008 to 51 per cent in 2013. Demand for increasingly integrated technologically advanced products and systems that can be managed over the internet are expected to continue to drive growth during the forecast period.”
Audio/video entry
“Audio/video entry equipment sales and rental income are expected to continue to account for the second largest share of the access control market, commanding a relatively static share of 34 per cent of the total throughout the forecast period.
“In value terms, demand for audio/video entry systems is anticipated to demonstrate a similar trend to the overall market, with a moderate decline projected for 2009 followed by growth in the subsequent years. In 2013, the market is anticipated to reach GB pound 257.2 million, equivalent to an overall increase of 12 per cent in real terms compared with 2008.”
Stand alone systems
“The importance of stand alone systems is anticipated to contract from 18 per cent in 2008 to a more moderate 15 per cent in 2013, reflecting the relative maturity of the sector. Demand for stand alone systems is expected to decline during much of the forecast period, albeit at moderate levels.
“Overall, between 2008 and 2013, sales in the sector are projected to contract by a cumulative 7 per cent in real terms to GB pound 113.5 million (at 2008 prices) in the latter year.”
The UK Access Control Market Development Report is available, price: GB pound 600.
Purchasing details: www.mbdltd.co.uk
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