The Home Office’s quarterly update presents the most recent crime statistics from two different sources: the British Crime Survey and police recorded crime figures.
Based on British Crime Survey interviews in the year to September last year, the Government reports “no statistically significant change” in the estimated number of crimes compared with the previous 12-month period.
On a positive note, police recorded crime – again for the 12 months to last September – has tailed off by 4%. Both sets of statistics also record falls in vandalism offences, and there has been a 19% drop in the number of offences involving firearms recorded by the police (from 7,749 offences down to 6,285).
Continuing that positivity, British Crime Survey measures of confidence in the police all show statistically significant increases (for example, 57% of those interviewed agree that their local police and/or local council is dealing effectively with crime or anti-social behaviour affecting their area… a 5% rise on last year’s results).
Not all positive news
However, it’s not all good news. Police recorded figures on robbery have risen by 4%. The Home Office suggests this has been driven by a 5% increase in robberies of personal property – such as smart phones, bags and cash.
Around 50% of those robberies have taken place in Greater London. The national increase this time around has been driven not only by a 13% hike in the Capital, but also a 10% increase across the West Midlands.
Worryingly, the number of robbery incidents involving knives shows a larger increase – at 10% – than for robberies overall (from 13,971 offences to 15,313).
British Crime Survey estimates for the year to September 2011 reveal no statistically significant change in overall household crime compared to the previous year. The overall estimate of personal crime shows an 11% increase on the prior 12 months.
That said, the Government is quick to point out that “the medium-term trend is fairly flat” while the estimated number of personal crime incidents – standing at 3.9 million – is “broadly similar” to levels witnessed since the British Crime Survey for the year ending 2005.
Levels of overall violence
The British Crime Survey interviews highlight no statistically significant change in levels of overall violence when compared to the year ending September 2010. The level of violence against the person recorded by the police shows an 8% drop (consistent with the downward trend shown in the number of these crimes for the last five years).
Violence with injury has fallen more – by 9%, in fact – than violence without injury, which exhibits a drop of 7%.
Police recorded crime provides information on a number of further types of crime, among them sexual offences. Police-recorded sexual offence cases have fallen by just 1%. Within this category, most serious sexual crimes increased by 2%. This continues the pattern of increases in reporting and recording of such crimes seen since 2009, although the rate of increase does appear to be slowing.
Of course, it’s well known that a high proportion of sexual offences are not reported to the police service. Increases in recorded figures may therefore represent improved reporting rates rather than increasing levels of victimisation.
Drugs-related offences, fraud and forgery
Drugs-related offences recorded by the police service rose by 1%. Bear in mind, though, that these recorded crime statistics are heavily influenced by policing priorities, and may well reflect changes in the policing of drug crime more than real changes in its incidence.
Meantime, fraud and forgery offences recorded by the police show a 5% fall for the year ending September 2011 when set against figures for the previous year. Again, fraud offences are known to be substantially under-reported to the police and are not covered in the main British Crime Survey crime count.
“The latest crime statistics show continuing efforts to reduce crime, protect the public from harm and improve public confidence in policing,” suggested chief constable Jon Murphy, ACPO’s lead on crime and criminality.
“The independent British Crime Survey shows crime levels remain steady, and the service is encouraged by a continued increase in those people who believe the police in their local area are doing a good or excellent job.”
Murphy continued: “There has been an 8% fall in police recorded violence against the person offences, and it’s particularly encouraging to see a continued trend towards a reduced number of police recorded firearms offences. Although these crimes are relatively small in number, their impact on communities can be severe and police forces will continue to work with the National Ballistics Intelligence Service and other law enforcement agencies to build on this performance and further disrupt criminals’ access to firearms.”
Continuing his assessment of the latest crime figures, Murphy stated: “While incidents in violence against the person overall have fallen, a continued cause for concern is the increase in pick-pocketing, robbery and robbery with knives. This has been driven by a rise in robberies of personal property, and police forces will want to focus actions on tackling these offences and offering crime prevention advice.”
He added: “Keeping valuables hidden from view and taking precautions such as setting pass codes on mobile phones and other electronic devices are all important measures that people can take to prevent themselves from becoming a victim of crime.”
No room for complacency
Also responding to the latest British Crime Survey figures, Javed Khan – the chief executive of charity Victim Support – explained: “These figures show there’s no room for complacency in the fight against crime. Behind them are real people whose lives have been traumatised by the actions of a criminal minority. While crime overall appears to be stable, the increases in personal crimes, violence and robberies involving knives is a major cause for concern.”
Khan concluded: “Every day in communities across England and Wales we help thousands of people to overcome the devastating impacts of crime. The challenge for the police and other justice agencies is to build on their good work to date in driving crime – and the number of victims of crime – down even further.”
Read the full 24-page Home Office report here.
