I’ve been in post as CEO of the National Security Inspectorate (NSI) for just over a year now, so I still consider myself as something of a ‘new boy on the street’ as far as the private security sector’s concerned.
While this might allow me to get away with asking the odd dumb question or two, it also permits me to look across our super industry and profession with a relatively fresh pair of eyes.
I want to use this opportunity to pose some questions and, hopefully, provoke some discussion and debate among those of you with far greater levels of knowledge and experience than myself.
I’ve taken an holistic approach to reviewing the ‘State of the Security Nation’ as I believe this to be essential in order to realise the totality of the sector. I also believe that there’s now an undoubted blurring of the more traditional boundaries, for instance between the traditional electronic and traditional physical security sectors.
At the macro level of the industry, prospects should be rosy: despite crime statistics that appear to be heading in the right direction, the average citizen on the street probably feels less and less secure as the divide between the rich ‘have’s’ and the poor ‘have not’s’ widens and as the weakened economy and burgeoning unemployment levels push more and more individuals towards criminality.
This climate of insecurity is only exacerbated by the repetitive 24/7 media ‘blast’ whereupon relatively trivial incidents can be made to rapidly escalate into breaking dramas.
According to a recent report issued by Plimsoll Publishing, the growth forecast for the security sector is 64.5% over the next decade. That’s comforting. Indeed, the total security market has grown from $27.6 billion last year to $28.7 billion in 2012. On average, sales have reportedly risen by 2.7%, with larger companies recording an average 4.6% increase.
I would be most interested to know if those figures are borne out as my impression from meeting many NSI-approved companies over the past 12 months is that business is as tough as it ever was, and even more so today with the squeeze on budgets in all areas while austerity measures begin to bite – and bite hard.
In some form or other, for the last 12 months security has been at the forefront of the national news media here in the UK and, indeed, globally, be it for good or bad reasons, riots or espionage, hacking or the ever-nearing Olympic and Paralympic Games.
CCTV has come of age
Certainly, CCTV has come of age and now appears to be much more acceptable to the UK public as a viable crime-fighting tool rather than an incursion on our civil liberties.
Nevertheless, as IFSEC International’s event director Charlie Cracknell rightly said just prior to this year’s show, it’s now crunch time for the industry. The spotlight is very firmly upon it and, by extension, those practitioners operating within its boundaries.
There are three factors which, I believe, drive this industry of ours. In no particular order they are: the threat, technology and the market.
In terms of the threat, security is really all about protecting people and their property. We must be quite clear what the threat is to those two essential commodities and define how that threat might be countered and mitigated.
In terms of technology, we’re increasingly pushed in new directions by developing solutions and, if we don’t embrace the opportunities it offers, then we may have a real problem.
What we need to be doing is looking ahead and defining the technology we require to counter the future threat spectrum before us rather than letting technology lead us on a certain direction.
An age of unprecedented austerity
Looking at the market, we live in an age of unprecedented austerity which has the potential to be quite as bad as anything seen in the depression of the 1930s. Should the Euro currency fall – an occurrence that many economists now believe to be not just possible but inevitable – then the fall-out really will be severe.
We need to be ready to be ‘hit’ because, if we’re not, then it really will hurt quite a bit. The recent elections in Greece and France haven’t helped matters. Make no mistake that the ‘EuroZone Crisis’ is far from over.
Coming from a military background, I’m programmed to expect that all developments are actively threat-led. If there’s no threat perceived then there’s no security need. It’s as simple as that.
The threat drives Research and Development, consumers’ investment decisions and, ultimately, the deployment of the appropriate defensive or protective system. I think our sector might have something to learn from this ‘warlike’ general philosophy.
In any event, we do need to have a very clear focus to identify future threats, circulate and discuss future trends and assess how they may best be countered.
Improvements to risk assessment procedures
I also think we need to improve the quality of our risk assessment processes and procedures and agree on some standard formats. The risk assessment is the absolute cornerstone of any security solution and we neglect it at our peril. To be frank, I’m not always entirely sure that our consumers fully understand the process.
We should start, perhaps, by asking if the very nature of the threat itself has changed over the past few years and morphed into something that demands more attention and study?
Do recent events indicate that new criminal paradigms have emerged which we need to learn and understand more about?
These paradigms may include increased civil disobedience and riots (both of which will not go away, and are perhaps the most immediate of all challenges facing us), the risk of occupations of leading brand premises on the High Street, the danger of single issue armed individuals like Anders Breivik rearing their heads and the threat to us all – both from a corporate and individual perspective – posed by cyber crime. Witness the SOCA website having to be taken down in the wake of a recent attack.
Should we be worried about an assault by armed, marauding gang members as witnessed in Mumbai in 2008, or are we overly fixated on terrorism as it harbours political implications not afforded to lesser profile crimes?
Are we too complacent towards terrorism due to the success of the security services when it comes to intercepting threats such as the 2006 attempt to bring down a raft of airliners over the Atlantic using liquid explosives and, more recently, the re-emergence of the ‘underpants bomber’?
How many of us regularly schedule those types of incidents into our own contingency plans?
What crime is most important to the man and woman in the street? Fraud witnessed a 14% increase last year, and metal theft is certainly in the ascendancy, in turn leading to all kinds of disruption.
I remember former Metropolitan Police Service Commissioner Sir Ian Blair talking about O’Leary’s Law at a CSARN-organised event in London last year. “Don’t you mean Murphy’s Law?” asked a member of the audience. “No,” replied Sir Ian. “O’Leary’s Law rates Mr Murphy as an optimist!”
The Olympic Games will surely spotlight our industry. However, we would do well to always remember that this is a sporting spectacle needing security. It isn’t a security event with a bit of sport thrown in as some members of the national press would have us believe.
This is a mega event – current estimate of the money needed to secure the Games is a massive GB pound 553 million – and will spotlight our security capabilities across the world. We should beat our drum of success long and loud once the dust has settled on London 2012.
Technology: a stimulus for change and growth
Security technology is providing a stimulus for change, growth and reductions in overheads. Technological advancement impinges on every aspect of the security sector. The surveillance and detection capability of modern sensor arrays and their reliability far exceeds anything previously available.
Indeed, the sheer quality and clarity of the imagery available is now hugely superior to anything we used to see on The Bill, with modern DVR systems providing fast and easy access without interrupting capture. There has been a significant shift in terms of communications bearers and the effectiveness of wireless systems.
CCTV really came of age following the outbreak of criminality on the UK’s streets last August. Arrests continue to be made almost on a daily basis in order to bring those responsible for damage and mayhem to account.
The implications for the industry are significant. Remote surveillance is now routine: the remote control of facilities, doors and shutters is becoming the norm. Technology enables the remote management and control of facilities in the widest use of the terminology.
Smart phone apps for the domestic sector will soon be standard accessories. What was once a science fiction novelty on board the Starship Enterprise is now science fiction reality in the security sector. The pace of change is relentless.
The spend on airport security will surely grow as travellers become increasingly frustrated by queues. Recent reports in the press have highlighted the development work being carried out by Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula to defeat current sensor technology and get explosive materials on board western aircraft without detection. Horrendously, this work has focused on the surgical insertion of explosives into the body cavities of suicide bombers. A technology response to this is needed now.
Finally on technology, I would just stress the importance of – and the need to support – the Engineers of Tomorrow and 100 in 100 2012 initiatives spearheaded by Simon Banks, David Greer and Brian Sims. I applaud and support them without reservation.
Clearly, reductions in Government spending in response to ongoing economic stress will have a real adverse and devastating effect on security company income at both the national and regional levels.
In addition, domestic and business customers will inevitably tend to cut back on spending when it comes to their systems or will otherwise look to delay the procurement of updates.
New builds are also well down on numbers. This emphasises the need for diversification and the avoidance of putting all of the eggs in one basket: a real danger for the small and specialist outfit.
Out of adversity springs opportunity
Does austerity present new opportunities for the industry in the shape of contracted-out services? Certainly in the policing sector we have seen the advent of the Lincolnshire Police support services contract. West Midlands Police and Surrey Police seem to indicate that they’ll go even further towards outsourcing frontline duties.
Will response be included? What about arresting people? These are significant issues, and represent a paradigm shift in the conduct of UK policing as well as the traditional ‘contract’ involving the State monopoly on physical control of the citizen.
How long will it be before we see the first armed private security officers in the UK? I would wager within 20 years or less.
How long might it be before we witness the first private security sector response under blues and twos? Perhaps even sooner.
Convergence: what does it mean for the security world?
Of late there has been much discussion around the topic of convergence within the security sector. The removal of so-called ‘silos’ is one description for it. However, for me convergence might be illustrated more simply by relating it to the military concept of ‘all arms co-operation’.
On the field of battle there are a number of combat arms. There’s the infantry, whose role it is to engage with and destroy the enemy. Then there’s the armoured corps whose tanks provide mass and firepower to deliver a deadly punch and serve the infantry with close support. However, tanks can be vulnerable. They need the infantry for close protection. It’s a genuinely symbiotic relationship.
Last but not least there’s the artillery whose guns deliver devastating fire for effect across a large area. All of the above is then ‘stitched together’ by the communications bearers of the signals.
Imagine the chaos if these separate yet intertwined elements were to work independently, in strict isolation from each other. Individually they are highly capable, but each also has its own set of weaknesses and vulnerabilities. The separate combat arms simply couldn’t function alone, but together they constitute a really powerful force.
The key to their working together is two-fold. First, there’s the intelligence information which they feed off in order to know the location, strengths and disposition of the enemy force (and here we’re back to ‘threat’ again).
Second, there’s the command, control and communications systems which unite their effect and bring co-ordination, and which we in this sector have as a norm.
Again, I believe this analogy is reflected in our industry where we can no longer work in isolated parts. Rather, we need to integrate and pull together if we’re to avoid fragmentation and a gradual weakening of the whole.
Security officers, security companies and the SIA
Is the security officer’s focus shifting towards a more integrated role? Will that future role encompass the disciplines of fire prevention/protection, environmental management, IT security, business continuity planning and emergency management?
What effect might this have on the training, selection and workload of our future managers? What effect will it have on the command, control and communications systems we need?
And exactly what effect will convergence really have on the security sector? For what it’s worth, my view is that it not only moves the goalposts but redesigns the playing field.
At some stage over the next few years, the Security Industry Authority is looking to realise a regime framed by compulsory business licensing for the guarding sector. While we await the detail, one wonders at the effect of this shift on that sector and how many of those companies currently still operating ‘below the radar’ will be exposed?
The systems arena is already one of the most regulated in any business sector. How high or how low the entry level for the new licensing regime is to be set – and what criteria might constitute the standard – are details that we have yet to discover.
On a personal note, I hope we err on the high side and unearth the sharks who continue to operate in the security sector. We need to put them to rest once and for all.
Attendance at automatic alarm activations
In order to save funds, a number of fire and rescue services have now stated that they’ll not follow the national Chief Fire Officers Association (CFOA) policy guidelines regarding attendance at automatic alarm activations.
Despite huge reductions in false alarm rates, blue light movements towards ‘non-incidents’ remain high. Last year, there were 337,000 false fire alarm activations across the UK, representing a decrease of 5% from 2009-2010 and one third lower than the peak level of 507,000 which occurred in 1995.
Perhaps technology has the answer at some point in the future? It could be the case that a fatality will force the issue of fire response. The solution will undoubtedly come from the industry itself, and the result could well be lucrative.
Moving back to crime, although national statistics continue to indicate a reduction in its occurrence, will the public perception of the threat increase the demand for new response systems, in particular across the medium to lower end of the domestic market?
Standards: the backbone of what we do
Finally, it would be unforgivable of me not to mention standards – the very essence of the raison d’etre of the certification bodies.
The value of external third party audit is well established and we all aspire, hopefully, to improve quality across all aspects of the industry. However, it seems that wherever I go a constant complaint is the frequency and repetition of forms to be filled in and the sheer volume of data that has to be provided – very often the same forms and the same data over and over again.
We need to be conscious of the debilitating effect that can have on staff and morale.
At the NSI, we’re world leaders at demanding repetitive forms and more data as well as more statistics. In this electronic information era there has to be a better way. We’ll be making an announcement on this in the very near future as we move towards some significant changes to the way in which the NSI does business.
In conclusion, I do feel the UK security sector is standing at a crossroads. A number of mixed factors are driving change, and I’ve touched on just a few of them here.
How we respond to and embrace change will dictate our success – or otherwise – in the years ahead. If we’re to achieve the best outcomes and solutions we need to take notice of what’s happening in the external environment and respond in good time.
The UK’s security sector continues to be at the forefront of the world stage, but we must work hard to keep it there.
Jeff Little OBE is chief executive of the National Security Inspectorate
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